Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 15.573684 18.914171 22.634335 27.061200 32.161083 37.827463 44.573757
2025-05-04 11.040800 15.439266 20.883094 28.010521 36.981157 47.777424 61.621304
2025-05-11 8.434220 13.197371 19.596376 28.592623 40.657029 56.003055 76.686923
2025-05-18 6.478938 11.232358 18.102812 28.373493 42.898089 62.226462 89.334400
2025-05-25 4.916151 9.422702 16.409051 27.466246 43.873031 66.596067 99.585063
2025-06-01 3.896824 8.205035 15.327175 27.187800 45.539170 71.837782 111.142571
2025-06-08 2.970388 6.908931 13.868577 26.069650 45.744620 74.889014 119.673108
2025-06-15 2.547282 6.430473 13.671158 26.888895 48.894540 82.321870 134.768836
2025-06-22 1.990985 5.541085 12.589305 26.063381 49.312386 85.623507 143.906536
2025-06-29 1.744560 5.247140 12.549921 27.011322 52.642734 93.507498 160.203599
2025-07-06 1.300883 4.369344 11.218272 25.447413 51.589587 94.417806 165.861336
2025-07-13 1.128614 4.110104 11.098185 26.113185 54.391207 101.584854 181.478854
2025-07-20 0.959537 3.837109 10.965836 26.866997 57.638557 110.036254 200.157621
2025-07-27 0.822061 3.612893 10.915533 27.805336 61.347955 119.557673 221.172200
2025-08-03 0.688174 3.345838 10.709336 28.383707 64.414968 128.139809 241.031048
2025-08-10 0.543793 2.975896 10.169146 28.165854 65.925951 134.100339 256.808535
2025-08-17 0.405244 2.548225 9.375839 27.263980 65.996819 137.503756 268.419867
2025-08-24 0.315631 2.260785 8.891113 26.987189 67.260739 143.054165 283.851536
2025-08-31 0.225945 1.903928 8.108369 25.875723 66.692655 145.213803 293.503607
2025-09-07 0.193147 1.810618 8.108439 26.690066 70.215688 155.070259 316.920758
2025-09-14 0.139748 1.551634 7.502969 25.869492 70.150628 158.185260 328.555852
2025-09-21 0.120947 1.493581 7.565263 26.811763 74.008589 168.917211 354.141783
2025-09-28 0.078821 1.215426 6.753730 25.257229 72.147069 168.525224 359.655028